Forecasts for Ron Paul for NH?

I’m curious to know what folks expect Ron Paul’s  vote totals will be for in the New Hampshire primary.  I’m also curious to hear surmises on what the lasting impact (if any) from Paul’s candidancy in NH and elsewhere.

I’m hoping he can hit a home run and come in third, though the polls seem to be all over the place.   Maybe the independents will turn out far more for him than expected. It would be great to see him trounce Giuliani again.

One great thing about the RP campaign – Far more voters in Iowa and NH saw a clear alternative and had a chance to vote for freedom. Primary voters have the opportunity to renounce Bush’s authoritarinaism – the torture, the preemptive war doctrines, the Total Information Awareness Surveillance State that has arisen since 2001.

 At least they cannot say that they didn’t have a choice….


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23 Responses to Forecasts for Ron Paul for NH?

  1. W Baker January 8, 2008 at 12:25 am #


    I’ll stick my toe in and say a strong third, if not better. New Hampshire ain’t the place it used to be. A helluva of lot of Mass. (Boston) people have flocked into the State – obviously calling into question the motto, ‘live free or die’. Perhaps Paul will enliven some of the old New Hampshire blood.

    Yo’ mama Obama seems to have a good lock on a good many, soft-headed youngsters and aging yuppies who pine away for their soft-headed youth.

    How the Huckster has been able to fool New Englanders is news to me. In the past the Puritan stock of New England has been able to sniff out a charlatan masquerading in clerical clothes. Maybe because they have seen so many of their own over the years, I couldn’t speculate.

    Bottom line. I hope our new Admiral of the Colonies, McCain, continues to stick his foot in it. We need this asshole like we need another “War” on another virtual front!

    If we end up with this idiot, we’ll beg for the days of Bush! Now that’s saying something.

  2. Dirk W. Sabin January 8, 2008 at 11:51 am #

    As to Huckabee’s crypto Count Mesmer routine, I think it is all in the big ole round eyes, like the big eyed urchin and puppy paintings that middle America once bought by the tonnage until Thomas Kinkaide horned in with his own brand of sacharine on steroids. The folks of Arkansas can explain what a booster he is.

    I do believe the Obama Rapture may have blunted the steam building for Ron Paul amongst the independents. The media is doing it’s level best to paint him as the crazy uncle. An editorial in the N.Y. Times slammed the entire late of the GOP , specifically mentioning Paul even though Paul represent an alternative from the precise things the Times was slamming the GOP for

    Despite New Hampshire’s independence I doubt he’ll get any better than 4th but even that is amazing given past popular voter histories and the libertarian philosophy. I hope to be surprised and would love to watch the media pundithugs scratch their heads over a Ron Paul surprise.

  3. Thomas January 8, 2008 at 12:51 pm #

    The forecast for NH’s weather is 60s and beautiful, not too good for Ron Paul. As you already know, Paul’s supporters are more dedicated than other candidates’ supporters. If it was below 0 and a blizzard, most other supporters would have stayed home, while Paul’s supporters would have voted anyway. But not today. 🙁

  4. Tom Blanton January 8, 2008 at 1:59 pm #

    Unfortunately, Thomas is right about the stinkin’ good weather. The best thing about NH is that it is an open primary and most voters are registered independent. A lot of these independents will vote for Ron Paul, so he won’t have to rely so much on idiot Republicans.

    I’m guesstimating that Ron Paul will get around 15%, putting him at 3rd or 4th place and ahead of Giuliani.

    Dr. Paul’s advantage is that he will stick around as long as his money lasts, and his base is loyal and growing. The other GOP candidates have fickle supporters. The Huckabee charm will quickly evaporate and people will realize once again that McCain is insane. With any luck, the whole GOP will fall apart.

    The notion that only Ron Paul can win the 2008 election could take hold if the crazy Republicans consider that as many people voted for Obama in Iowa as all GOP candidates combined and that the Dems have raised twice as much cash collectively as the GOP has raised.

    Oh, Merrill Lynch has declared that the recession has begun and Sibel Edmonds may unleash a shitstorm against the neocons – all this could make Ron Paul look pretty damn prescient to those who still don’t understand where he is coming from.

  5. Dirk W. Sabin January 8, 2008 at 5:04 pm #

    Recession will be the good news if what looks to be the perfect ingredients for stagflation hits.

    Perhaps Obama can put on a Mr. Rogers sweater and sit in front of the fireplace and explain to the whipsawed American public tha their “malaise” aint quite the “change” he had in mind.

    “Change”…..what a thigh slapper.

  6. The Infamous Oregon Lawhobbit January 8, 2008 at 5:57 pm #

    Fourth at best, maybe even fifth. Too many people are like the clodhopper on the Brian Wilson Show yesterday, “I’m going to vote for Obama because he won in Iowa” and will only vote for a candidate that they see as winning, not voting for the candidate that IS a winner.

    Then they gripe about the government that they get – though not loudly, if they’re GETTING from that government.

  7. Jim January 8, 2008 at 7:52 pm #

    Y’all have persuaded me not to bet the farm on Paul winning tonight.

  8. Tom Blanton January 8, 2008 at 10:33 pm #

    McCain 37%
    Romney 31%
    Huckabee 11%
    Giuliani 9%
    Paul 8%
    185 of 301 Precincts Reporting – 61%

    Clinton 39%
    Obama 36%
    Edwards 17%

    McCain & Hillary? What kind of nightmare fuckery is this?

    It may be time for the Free State Project to relocate to Costa Rica.

  9. Jim January 8, 2008 at 10:41 pm #

    “Auspicious” is not the word that comes to mind looking at these results.

    With Hillary & McCain the winners, I find it especially difficult to read the poll results as a rejection of authoritarianism.

  10. Jim January 8, 2008 at 10:46 pm #

    One slight consolation is that the press corps has utterly disgraced itself.

    The media portrays McCain as an idealist – when his dominant ideal since 2001 was to kiss Bush’s boots every chance he got….

  11. W Baker January 8, 2008 at 11:42 pm #


    I withdraw my comments above and stick with those relating to McCain. I think Paul had about the strongest organization in New Hampshire as he has in any State, and it only netted him around 8 or 9%.

    I don’t want to be pessimistic, but I can’t – at the moment – locate any other attitude.


  12. Mace Price January 9, 2008 at 12:41 am #

    …Even if I predict McCain’ll be the one they put in the White House; Hillary’s done for. Why? Because if Obama can garner that many votes in New Hampshire, think what he could pull down in CA and other electoral states? Hell of a comment. Hell of a time.

  13. Jean January 9, 2008 at 9:55 am #

    Jim, needless to say, it’s disappointing. I had predicted somewhere between 15 and 20 percent. I went to the exit polling at CNN, and I couldn’t believe me eyes.
    For example, the numbers concerning gun owners blew me away. I have dozen of baseball card size of Romney quotes on his stance on gun control. He’s a gun grabber big time, and he beat Dr. Paul.

    Also, people voted for McCain over Paul who thought the Bush Adminstration sucks. One wonders is the Paul campaign not getting the message out, or are people really that dumb. Positives was that Paul finished third with people who were under 40, but it seems the youth didn’t come out and vote.

  14. Original Steve January 9, 2008 at 10:05 am #

    At least when a guy like me hates Hillary, he knows why.


  15. Original Steve January 9, 2008 at 10:06 am #

    I fear Her and McCain being the choice….ugh. Good luck to Ron Paul

  16. Jim January 9, 2008 at 10:52 am #

    Steve – I agree – it is a choice made in Hades.

    On the bright side, I guess I may not need to renounce the conclusions of Attention Deficit Democracy any time soon.

  17. The Infamous Oregon Lawhobbit January 9, 2008 at 11:03 am #

    Jim: One slight consolation is that the press corps has utterly disgraced itself.

    TIOL: This is news? cf. NBC’s recent comments about its Obama worship. 😀

    PS: Do I get a prize for predicting Ron Paul’s finish accurately?

  18. Jim January 9, 2008 at 11:36 am #

    Jean – thanks for the good points on the poll data breakdowns.

    To vote for McCain to protest Bush’s policies… And they ask me why I drink.

  19. Jim January 9, 2008 at 12:19 pm #

    Hobbit – good point on the media.

    Ya, you were dead-on for the poll results.

    For the prize – what about an all-expense paid dinner with John McCain?

    Actually, that may not be a fair reward for your foresight.

    What other suggestions do folks have on the ideal prize for the winning prediction?

  20. Dirk W. Sabin January 9, 2008 at 12:40 pm #

    As a prize, may I suggest a sampling of the new bumper stickers to be printed by the Hellery Campaign: “Cry For Change”…..”Cry For Help” and, of course, “Change is as Change Does”.
    Jaysus but was the breathless hyperbole on the networks amazing last night. “Courage” spouted at least 50 times.

    I have a question, how many Diebold Voting Machines are there in New Hamptucky?

    The most emblematic portion of the evening was when Ron Pauls folksy and authentic extemporaneous speech on the ills of this big government charade…the only real suggestion of change being bandied about and of course only broadcast on CSPAN (a useful channel when one’s teeth have jarred loose from too much punditry ejaculations)…but Paul authentically holding forth and a vigorous crowd of sentient New Hampshirites chanting “Live Free or Die”…only to see his fine presentation preempted to broadcast the 1,689th presentation of Edwards speech “Little Jenny Murdered by Evil Health Insurers ” I mean I enjoy Edward’s slamming of the Bolsheviki Corporations but the sentimentality of it wears after the 500th telling of it.

    What we have here ladies and gents is a national home invasion.
    And Mr. Blanton, I think buying that little retirement bar in Costa Rica sounds great but I understand there are too many retired “School of americas” “instructors” down there to fully relax in times of strife.
    What follows “the ridiculous”?

  21. The Infamous Oregon Lawhobbit January 9, 2008 at 1:12 pm #

    I like the “Cry For Change” one!!

    Here’s the deal. Sociology 101 – Control subchapter – says that there are two ways to control/order a social group. By consent or by coercion. That’s it. Either you’re all in agreement or you’re being forced (yes, technically when you’re being coerced you still have a choice and thus “consent,” but “live free or die” is not the best choice to base a social group on). In order to maintain a social group by consent, the society has to be seen by all its members as beneficial, either in actuality or potentiality. If the members don’t see any benefit or potential benefit, they move on to other society, changing social groups.

    Well, we’ve pretty much passed “consent” here and have moved into “coercion.” And to run a social group by coercion, the powers that be need to control two things – information and weapons, with the emphasis (sorry, 2A brothers and sisters) by far on “information.” And the powers that be are simply not going to allow information to happen that upsets their control of the apple cart.

    TPTB are, for the record, pretty much anyone with a stake in the ancien regime we have going here.

  22. Tory January 9, 2008 at 2:39 pm #

    Liberals got all the frickin votes – almost 2-1 .

    If Hellary wins it won’t be another balanced-budget Clinton presidency. She’s pro-war and that will send us into recession (rising prices), and war spending will exacerbate that.

    If Obama wins (oh my), he owes the most leftist Americans (Blacks and other minorities.) It will be a nose-dive 4 year presidency (oh my.) His leftist friends, including that nazi replica Kucinich, combined with his Haavaerd education will cloud his brain worse than any hashish he smoked but never inhaled.

    We’ll get thru it; we’ve been thru worse before. Buckle up – it’s the law.

  23. Dirk W. Sabin January 9, 2008 at 5:34 pm #

    “Pardon Me, But….I Don’t Want to Upset Anyone or maybe insult them or nothing but geez I just dont know what to do here but all the lines make me wanna join in to see where they are goin and oh yea, Live Free or Die Laughin” New New Hamptucky Motto